Macromegas #1

Hi everyone,

Best thoughts

How the global financial system might evolve in a life-changing manner in the next decade

In today's world, why do we hold our savings in fiat currencies such as dollars, euros or pounds sterling? Why not in "hard" currencies like gold (or bitcoin)? Central Banks definitely hold their savings in gold.
This is even more relevant considering the dollar progressively losing its reserve status vs. the Chinese renminbi (see Ray Dalio's essay below), plus crawling non-zero inflation vs. near-zero interest rates.
Gold ETFs or crypto liquidity is more than good enough for savings, so I feel like there has to be more to it. Our mental framework is very much engrained on quoting prices in Central Banks currencies, but we could start thinking differently and look at asset prices in gold. For example: S&P 500 priced in gold
This fascinating article by Ray Dalio on the geopolitical power shifts across the ages explains why now might be a good time for us to start shifting our mindset. An essay I would have wanted to write - if only I had a team of analysts working for me with no budget constraint!
The Changing World Order - Chapter 1: The Big Picture in a Tiny Nutshell

The tremendous impact Global Warming will have on our lives in the next decades

I am convinced that - much more than COVID-19 - the next reshaping of our lives will come from finally reacting to climate change. This is one of the key trends I follow. An excellent (but depressing) read to understand the potential shifts in our life and our economy.
The Uninhabitable Earth - Famine, economic collapse, a sun that cooks us: What climate change could wreak... sooner than you think

How to manage your investments depending on your skills and time resources according to Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger

Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger explain how portfolio over-diversification is both non-practical both sub-optimal. Admittedly the right strategy as an ignorance hedge. I'll come back to that one with an essay this year.
Warren Buffett: How Many Stocks Should You Own In Your Portfolio?

Understanding how the COVID-19 might trigger an inflationary crisis

An interesting comparison of the COVID-19 crisis with the American Great Depression. I generally agree with the inflationary trend, especially in the US, but I still feel like the author should have at least offer arguments against deflation.
Why This is Unlike the Great Depression (Better & Worse)

A promising way to make Malaria disappear by infecting mosquitoes with a protecting symbiont

Potentially saving 500,000+ lives per year, mostly children.
Malaria 'completely stopped' by microbe or A microsporidian impairs Plasmodium falciparum transmission in Anopheles arabiensis mosquitoes

Inspiration

"You can't make a better version of nothing." - @jackbutcher

Nike's very first manifesto

Thanks for reading - talk to you next week,

V


PS: as usual, if you have questions, comments, or suggestions, feel free to write to me simply by replying to this email.