Macromegas #13 - Disrupting Progress
AI & GPT-3, Disruptive Progress theory, and Cryonics
Hi friends,
Happy Friday!
What is the next (feasible) step for conversational AI?
As you may have heard, a team of data scientist recently released the next-gen version of Natural Language Processing (NLP) model. For those not familiar with AI, basically a tool to make computers understand all the subtleties of human language when humans write naturally as they would to one another. And vice versa, for computers to communicate with human users as they would expect to be talked to by a fellow human.
Not spoiling how amazing this new (very disruptive) improvement is: just google “GPT-3 demo” and see for yourself. The applications are varied and mindblowing.
This article looks at what it would take to reach the next-gen from this next-gen, and potentially build something truly human-like (read about the Turing Test or watch Hollywood’s take on it). Spoiler: this is quite feasible and even realistic.
Read the full (somewhat technical) essay here: Are we in an AI overhang?
Have we eaten all the low-hanging-fruits of progress?
This article is very much an open discussion giving the reader the right keys and history framework to think about the question on his own.
I was waiting for the right time to share it, and I must say I am loving the irony of being able to squeeze it between AI potentially changing society as we know it, and medical science potentially altering the way we perceive the most timeless aspect of human life: death.
My two-cents on this: even being strongly pragmatic, it is hard to believe we have reached a hard wall yet. Generation after generation, our ancestors have thought they were stuck. Generations after generations, they have also been hammering their kids and grand-kids with “it was better before, your generation is weak and incapable of the brilliance of your elders” - this has been going on since Ancient Greece. At least. We don’t know for sure since the first criticisms like this were recorded for us in writing… and were complaining that writing was destroying the right way of life.
People were predicting the end of London by death-under-meters-high-layer-of-horse-excrements. Then the car came up, took off, and the problem simply stopped existing. People predicted mobile phones would never come close to mass adoption, that the Internet was a geek tool. Well…
I believe that between AI finally enabled with otherworldly computing power, gene editing, IoT & AR, decentralised networks, and cheap/mass access to space, we have enough starts-of-the-S-curve available to disrupt the world for the better in at least as drastically as the Internet and Smartphones did. And those are just the S-curves starts we are currently aware of.
What do you think? You can comment below.
Read the short essay here: Teasing apart the S-curves
Cryonics and the limits of medical death
You really have to read the article to understand the full concept and the impact it would have on the way we perceive death. A few take-aways:
the concept of death and
cryogenics technology is much much more advanced than I thought it was
it is also (very relatively) cheaper than it could be
a lot of “user” concerns have been very smartly addressed - human beings can be really smart when they want to deeply tackle a problem
based on the above, the probability of success is far from ridiculously low
The one thing I am missing remains the long-term legal/financial implications of the whole thing. I would expect such a service to come packaged with a trust provider ensuring you don’t (hopefully) wake up declared dead with no possession on Earth whatsoever.
Very early S-curve, but fascinating theoretical consequences.
Read the long-form (but extremely thorough) essay here: Why Cryonics Makes Sense
As you might have noticed, final touch of the rebranding I operated this week.
Not changing things anymore: you can enjoy in peace for the years to come.
As a recap, my former “Second Order Thinking” newsletter is now split into two separate publications:
“Macromegas” ;) - Understand the world through the best curated thoughts and readings on geopolitics, economics & technology.
Monday - one relevant thought / short story
Friday - curated best readings of the week“Systematize Success” - Reach your definition of success by crafting your optimal learning, decision-making, and execution system.
Wednesday - one relevant thought / short story
You are subscribed to both, no action required on your side.
Feel free to recommend to friends who might be interested.
Next Monday we’ll talk about applying second-order thinking to critical thinking in society, as a goodbye to the name. Stay tuned.
Thanks for reading,
V